For males we have used the rate of decline since 1990 in Swedish males who can buy snuff in every tobacconists shop. On this basis, which is unlikely to be achieved, smoking would decline to 15% by 2016.
	It is only when we add in the effect of reducing nicotine in the cigarette, that we see dramatic reductions in smoking prevalence. The sales ban would still be needed, as it would be difficult for border control to identify and keep out full flavour nicotine cigarettes, without a total ban.