For this scenario, male and female estimates of smoking prevalence reduction are averaged.
	Again, a combination of nicotine reduction capped off with a sales ban is the most effective method of reducing smoking.
	Smoking deaths would then start declining, reducing from 4400 now to  400 or less annually within 15 years. The gains for Maori would be approximately 600 deaths a year fewer. (based on Peto’s method)