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Summary
Smoking prevalence
is declining much more slowly than in other leading tobacco control jurisdictions,
suggesting that New Zealand needs to:
1)
Review
its expenditure on mass media advertising to promote quitting.
2)
Critically
review tobacco taxation policy www.smokeless.org.nz/tobaccotaxes.htm
3)
Adopt
effective policies to assist smokers to quit smoking without having to
quit nicotine www.smokeless.org.nz/smokersoptions.htm
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Method
Projections were
based on daily smoking rates in the leading states or countries, based on
the average rate of decline in percentage points per year in recent
years, using the average of three years’ data in 1990-2 and 2002-4
to establish a reliable beginning and end points to estimate the rate of
decline. Survey methods may vary across countries, but this should not
affect comparisons based on the rates of decline.
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Figure 1.
Daily smoking prevalence projections for the total population, through to
2026, based on the trend from 1990-2 to 2002-4.
Results
TOTAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
As Figure 1 above shows, based on the rates of decline since 1990, in
2026 smoking prevalence in New Zealand adults would be ten points higher
than the next worst (California).
In NZ Maori, smoking prevalence would be 30 points higher than for
California, and 20 points higher than for NZ as a
whole.
MALE SMOKING PROJECTIONS
As Figure 2 below shows, in 1990-2 for men, New Zealand’s smoking prevalence was only 1.5
percentage points higher than Sweden’s. By 2016 based on recent trends,
this gap is expected to increase to over 15 percentage points. Sweden had the fastest decline in male smoking
since 1990-2, and this is expected to continue due to the recent
increased popularity of Swedish oral snuff, now more popular than
smoking. Results for New Zealand (snuff banned) and for Californian men,
(who use little snuff) show slow rates of decline.
Figure 2. Daily smoking prevalence projections for
men through to 2016.
For more information see www.smokeless.org.nz/smostats.htm
(Fig. 3) www.smokeless.org.nz/StubbingOutCigaretteSales.htm
(international trends)
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Sources:
Sweden www.statveca.com
California. BRFSS state prevalence data. www.cdc.gov
NZ Tobacco Facts. www.ndp.govt.nz/tobacco
The Fig 1 result holds true for Maori largely regardless of the method
of estimation (percentage points or fractions).
Canada Canadian Tobacco Use
Monitoring Survey. www.hc-sc.gc.ca
Australia: AIHW NDS
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, National drug strategy
household surveys. www.aihw.gov.au 31
July 2005.
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