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Updated March 2008
New Zealand cigarette and tobacco smoking statistics
Fig 1.
Adult smoking prevalence, age 15 and over, 1990-2006
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AC Nielsen survey, 1982-2005. www.ndp.govt.nz Tobacco Facts
MoH TUS
Survey2006 (age <65) NZ Census 1996 and 2006. The Census includes all
ages, and so overall smoking rate is less.
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Smoking reduced an estimated 15% in the past 15 years
(1990-2005).(0.27 percentage points per year)
On this basis,
a reduction of 1% per year, it could be over 100 years before cigarettes
are as uncommon as pipes (<1%).
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Fig. 2. Number of smokers age 15 years
and over, 1985-2005.
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The number of cigarette smokers has increased since the
Smoke-free Environments Act 1990. Since 1990 the population has grown as
rapidly (due to migration) as smoking has declined.
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Figure 3. Projected rate of decline
in smoking prevalence based on recent trends in percentage points
decrease
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This graph projects the recent decreases in percentage
points of smoking prevalence forwards unchanged. On this basis, it could
take 45-65 years for NZ adults to reduce smoking prevalence to 5% of
adults smoking, (the percentage of NZ doctors who smoked in 1996.)
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·
The decrease 2000-2005 (0.4 percent-age
points per year) is twice as fast as between 1990 and 2000.
- The
rate of decrease in Maori smoking prevalence is twice as rapid as in
non-Maori, since 1990 and since 2000, but is based on smaller numbers,
and wider confidence intervals. The 95% confidence limits for smoking
prevalence in 2004 were 44.3, 49.1 for Maori, and 22.6, 24.2 for total
population (Tobacco Facts 2005 MoH).
Fig. 4. Cigarette smoking prevalence in New Zealand
2000-2006; adults and parents versus adolescents
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Year
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Age 14-15
years
At least
monthly
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Parent or
parents of 14-5 year olds
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Adults age
15+ years daily
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N
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30,000
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60,000
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10,000
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2000
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27.9
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Na
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24.8
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2001
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24.8
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40.3
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24.9
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2002
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22.1
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39.4
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24.5
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2003
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20.7
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40.6
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24.7
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2004
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17.5
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410
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23.4
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2005
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16.8
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39.8
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23.5
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2006
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14.2
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39.9
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22.2
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Source
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ASH year 10
survey
www.ash.org.nz
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MoH Tobacco Facts
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For comparison of New
Zealand with Sweden
at age 15-24 years, see snus.htm at Figure 1.
For comparison with whether
people smoke in adolescents’ homes, see smokefreehomes.htm
Parental smoking is as
reported by their 14-15 year old children.
One in seven
adolescents smoke monthly or more often. But one in four 15-19 year olds
smoke daily. (Fig.6) Adults are reducing their smoking slowly While the
proportion of young people age 14-15 years taking up smoking reduced after
1999, parents’ smoking prevalence was reported as steady in all
ethnic groups to 2006.
Fig 5. Cigarette smoking by age group,
prevalence, 2006
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This graph
records daily smoking, except that for age 14-15 years the figure
includes daily, weekly and monthly smokers.
In late
teen years, at age 15-19 nearly a quarter smoke cigarettes.
The
decreased smoking prevalence over age 50 is largely due to many smokers
having died early.
Source:
ASH Surveys for age 14-15 years, 2006.
TUS MoH survey for age 15 and over.
Tobacco Trends MoH 2006.
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Figure 6
Daily tobacco smoking, 2006.
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Graph at
c:/123/Tob/prevalence/International/Census_survivaladjPrev.xls
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The 2006
Census asks Do you smoke regularly,
that is, one or more a day (counting only tobacco cigarettes)?
The Census
underestimates smoking among 15-19 year- olds by 5 percentage points
compared to the results from computerized assisted telephone interviewing
used in the Tobacco Use Survey, also conducted in the first quarter of
2006, which counts any tobacco smoking.
The Census gives a figure of 20.7% for daily
cigarette smoking for the total population.
For the population
age 15-64 years the Census estimates daily smoking at 23.0%, similar to
the TUS estimate of 23.5% smoking
any tobacco product (including non-daily smoking), and 22% for daily
smoking at age 15-64 years.
Smoking prevalence is lower after age
50 due to smokers dying earlier than non-smokers.
NZ Census 2006 www.statistics.govt.nz
Tobacco Trends. 2006 Ministry of Health. Appendices.Table B6.
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Fig 7.
Prevalence, and Consumption per adult and per smoker 1985-2004, New
Zealand
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% adults smoking
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cigarettes/ adult/ year
tax-paid
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Cigarettes/ smoker/day
tax-paid
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1985
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30.1
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2493
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22.7
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|
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30.0
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2304
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21.1
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|
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29.6
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2328
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21.5
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|
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28.7
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2318
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22.1
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|
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26.7
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1877
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19.2
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1990
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27.3
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1972
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19.8
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26.2
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1742
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18.2
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26.8
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1561
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16.0
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27.0
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1531
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15.5
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27.0
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1471
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14.9
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1995
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26.4
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1477
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15.3
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25.6
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1511
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16.2
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26.1
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1444
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15.2
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25.2
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1377
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15.0
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25.5
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1312
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14.1
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2000
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25.2
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1339
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14.5
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25.2
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1129
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12.3
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2002
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24.5
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1186
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13.3
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2003
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24.7
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1016
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11.3
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2004
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23.4
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1000
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11.7
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2005
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1037
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Cigarettes and loose tobacco per adult, 1985-2005.
Data from the middle column on the left.
Excluding cigars
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Source: AC Nielsen, for cigarette smoking
prevalence age 15 and over. Face to face survey.
Tax-paid consumption data. www.statistics.govt.nz
Cigarettes per smoker by day is derived from
previous columns.
Fig. 8. Smoking prevalence by ethnic group,
1990-2004.
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Maori
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Pacific
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European
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Asian
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1990
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52.5
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31.1
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24.8
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1991
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49.6
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29.4
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23.7
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1992
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51.1
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32.5
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24.1
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1993
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53.7
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33.0
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23.6
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1994
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51.6
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33.8
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23.6
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19.3
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1995
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50.6
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33.6
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23.7
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12.2
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1996
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45.7
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33.4
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23.0
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16.4
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1997
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48.4
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32.6
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23.4
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16.0
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1998
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47.8
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32.0
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22.8
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15.5
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1999
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50.9
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30.0
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22.8
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15.1
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2000
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49.4
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34.3
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22.2
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17.8
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2001
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51.0
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30.7
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21.7
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15.9
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2002
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48.3
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33.3
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21.1
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15.4
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2003
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50.3
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35.9
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22.3
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17.4
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2004
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46.7
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29.0
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19.7
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Note: For 2004, European includes Asian.
Source: ACNielsen surveys for Ministry of
Health, and Tobacco Facts (MoH
2005). Not age standardized.
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Fig.9.
The lung cancer rate, new cases registered per 100,000 population;
New Zealand, 1997- 2003
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Men
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Women
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www.iarc.fr www.nzhis.govt.nz
Logarithmic scale used to highlight the difference at younger ages.
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The
rate decreased in men and increased in younger women from 1997
through 2000 to 2003. This
is not surprising: smoking
prevalence has been higher in young women than in young men for some
years. The lung cancer rate decreases 10-20 years after a fall in smoking
prevalence. At age 80 and over, the new case rate falls; fewer
smokers live to this age.
© Health New Zealand Ltd 2005.
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Lung cancer mortality.
In 2000, smoking caused 1185 deaths from lung cancer in New
Zealand
of which 88% of male, and 79% of female lung cancer deaths were
avoidable if no-one had smoked. (Peto et al, www.ctsu.ox.ac.uk )
Figure 10.
Combustible tobacco product consumption per adult New Zealand 1920-2004
© Health New Zealand Ltd
2005
Table 1. Tobacco
Consumption in tones and per adult New Zealand 1920-2004
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Year
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Total consumption in tonnes
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Consumption per adult: g/
adult/ year
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Total
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Total tobacco
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Cigars &
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Manuf tobacco
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tobacco
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cigarettes
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cigars etc
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manuf tobacco
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products
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Manufactured
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cigarillos
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Other
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